| Abstract |
This report analyzes the demand for primary aluminum, refined copper, lead, and zinc in nine Asian Pacific Rim countries for the past 20 to 30 years. The countries covered are Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and five member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations--Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The first half of the report describes the consumption patterns of the four metals in each of these countries in relation to the economic growth and trade patterns in the past 20 to 30 years. The last half develops a two-tier modeling approach to explain the factors affecting minerals demand and to estimate the metal demand models for each country. Of the many factors affecting minerals demand, it is found that intrasectoral structural changes (i.e., changes in product composition within a sector such as manufacturing) are the ones causing mineral intensity of use to rise and fall in the course of economic development, a phenomenon suggested by the mineral intensity of use hypothesis. |
