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Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security.

DE2009945918

Publication Date	2008
Personal Author	Taylor, M. A.; Zak, D. D.; Backus, G. A.; Ivey, M. D.; Boslough, M. B. E.
Page Count	84
Abstract	The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security.
Keywords	Environmental impacts Climates National security Arctic regions Risk assessment Global warming Greenhouse effect Climate change Mitigation Recommendations
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Supplemental Notes	Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200911
Contract Number	DE-AC04-94AL85000

Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security.

Arctic as a Test Case for an Assessment of Climate Impacts on National Security.
DE2009945918

Publication Date	2008
Personal Author	Taylor, M. A.; Zak, D. D.; Backus, G. A.; Ivey, M. D.; Boslough, M. B. E.
Page Count	84
Abstract	The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security.
Keywords	Environmental impacts Climates National security Arctic regions Risk assessment Global warming Greenhouse effect Climate change Mitigation Recommendations
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Supplemental Notes	Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200911
Contract Number	DE-AC04-94AL85000