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Distributed Micro-Releases of Bioterror Pathogens: Threat Characterizations and Epidemiology from Uncertain Patient Observables.

DE2009945910

Publication Date	2008
Personal Author	Wolf, M. M.; Marzouk, Y. M.; Adams, B. M.; Devine, K. D.; Ray, J.
Page Count	87
Abstract	Terrorist attacks using an aerosolized pathogen preparation have gained credibility as a national security concern since the anthrax attacks of 2001. The ability to characterize the parameters of such attacks, i.e., to estimate the number of people infected, the time of infection, the average dose received, and the rate of disease spread in contemporary American society (for contagious diseases), is important when planning a medical response. For non-contagious diseases, we address the characterization problem by formulating a Bayesian inverse problem predicated on a short time-series of diagnosed patients exhibiting symptoms. To keep the approach relevant for response planning, we limit ourselves to 3-5 days of data. In computational tests performed for anthrax, we usually find these observation windows sufficient, especially if the outbreak model employed in the inverse problem is accurate. For contagious diseases, we formulated a Bayesian inversion technique to infer both pathogenic transmissibility and the social network from outbreak observations, ensuring that the two determinants of spreading are identied separately. We tested this technique on data collected from a 1967 smallpox epidemic in Abakaliki, Nigeria. We inferred, probabilistically, different transmissibilities in the structured Abakaliki population, the social network, and the chain of transmission.
Keywords	Biological warfare agents Bioterrorism Pathogens Threats Epidemiology Patients Diagnosis(Medicine) Infectious diseases Anthrax Disease outbreaks National security Public health Health aspects Emergency plans Risk assessment Mathematical models
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.; Illinois Univ. at Urbana-Champaign.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Illinois Univ. at Urbana-Champaign. Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200911
Contract Number	DE-AC04-94AL85000

Distributed Micro-Releases of Bioterror Pathogens: Threat Characterizations and Epidemiology from Uncertain Patient Observables.

Distributed Micro-Releases of Bioterror Pathogens: Threat Characterizations and Epidemiology from Uncertain Patient Observables.
DE2009945910

Publication Date	2008
Personal Author	Wolf, M. M.; Marzouk, Y. M.; Adams, B. M.; Devine, K. D.; Ray, J.
Page Count	87
Abstract	Terrorist attacks using an aerosolized pathogen preparation have gained credibility as a national security concern since the anthrax attacks of 2001. The ability to characterize the parameters of such attacks, i.e., to estimate the number of people infected, the time of infection, the average dose received, and the rate of disease spread in contemporary American society (for contagious diseases), is important when planning a medical response. For non-contagious diseases, we address the characterization problem by formulating a Bayesian inverse problem predicated on a short time-series of diagnosed patients exhibiting symptoms. To keep the approach relevant for response planning, we limit ourselves to 3-5 days of data. In computational tests performed for anthrax, we usually find these observation windows sufficient, especially if the outbreak model employed in the inverse problem is accurate. For contagious diseases, we formulated a Bayesian inversion technique to infer both pathogenic transmissibility and the social network from outbreak observations, ensuring that the two determinants of spreading are identied separately. We tested this technique on data collected from a 1967 smallpox epidemic in Abakaliki, Nigeria. We inferred, probabilistically, different transmissibilities in the structured Abakaliki population, the social network, and the chain of transmission.
Keywords	Biological warfare agents Bioterrorism Pathogens Threats Epidemiology Patients Diagnosis(Medicine) Infectious diseases Anthrax Disease outbreaks National security Public health Health aspects Emergency plans Risk assessment Mathematical models
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.; Illinois Univ. at Urbana-Champaign.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Illinois Univ. at Urbana-Champaign. Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200911
Contract Number	DE-AC04-94AL85000