| Abstract |
Two levels of nonproliferation verification exist. Signatories of the basic agreements under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) agree to open their nuclear sites to inspection by the IAEA. A more detailed and intrusive level was developed following the determination that Iraq had begun a nuclear weapons development program that was not detected by the original level of verification methods. This level, referred to as 93+2 and detailed in model protocol INFCIRC/540, allows the IAEA to do environmental monitoring of non-declared facilities that are suspected of containing proliferation activity, and possibly further inspections, as well as allowing more detailed inspections of declared sites. 56 countries have signed a Strengthened Safeguards Systems Additional Protocol as of 16 July 2001. These additional inspections can be done on the instigation of the IAEA itself, or after requests by other parties to the NPT, based on information that they have collected. Since information able to cause suspicion of proliferation could arrive at any country, it is important that countries have procedures in place that will assist them in making decisions related to these inspections. Furthermore, IAEA inspection resources are limited, and therefore care needs to be taken to make best use of these resources. Most of the nonproliferation verification inspections may be concentrated on establishing that diversion of nuclear materials is not occurring, but some fraction will be related to determining if undeclared sites have nuclear materials production taking place within them. Of these, most suspicions will likely be related to the major existing technologies for uranium enrichment and reprocessing for plutonium extraction, as it would seem most likely that nations attempting proliferation would use tested means of producing nuclear materials. However, as technology continues to advance and new methods of enrichment and reprocessing are developed, inspection-related procedures will need to be adapted to keep up with them. In order to make 93+2 inspections more useful, a systematic way of finding clues to nuclear proliferation would be useful. Also, to cope with the possible use of newer technology for proliferation, the list of clues might need to be expanded. This paper discusses the development and recognition of such clues. It concentrates on laser isotope separation (LIS) as a new proliferation technology, and uses Uranium Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (U-AVLIS) as an example of LIS that is well known. |
