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Methods for Using Ground-Water Model Predictions to Guide Hydrogeologic Data Collection, with Application to the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System.

DE2003805570

Publication Date	2002
Personal Author	Tiedeman, C. R.; Hill, M. C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C. C.
Page Count	47
Abstract	Calibrated models of ground-water systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogelogic data collection for improving model predictions, by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parametes can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow-system features that can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new 'value of improved information' (VOII) method, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity.
Keywords	Ground water Hydrology Flow models Data collection Sensitivity analysis California
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA.; Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.; Geological Survey, San Diego, CA. Water Resources Div.; Geological Survey, Boulder, CO. National Research Program.
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Geological Survey, Boulder, CO. National Research Program., Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ. and Geological Survey, San Diego, CA. Water Resources Div. Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200323

Methods for Using Ground-Water Model Predictions to Guide Hydrogeologic Data Collection, with Application to the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System.

Methods for Using Ground-Water Model Predictions to Guide Hydrogeologic Data Collection, with Application to the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System.
DE2003805570

Publication Date	2002
Personal Author	Tiedeman, C. R.; Hill, M. C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C. C.
Page Count	47
Abstract	Calibrated models of ground-water systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogelogic data collection for improving model predictions, by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parametes can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow-system features that can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new 'value of improved information' (VOII) method, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity.
Keywords	Ground water Hydrology Flow models Data collection Sensitivity analysis California
Source Agency	Technical Information Center Oak Ridge Tennessee
Corporate Authors	Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA.; Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ.; Department of Energy, Washington, DC.; Geological Survey, San Diego, CA. Water Resources Div.; Geological Survey, Boulder, CO. National Research Program.
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Geological Survey, Boulder, CO. National Research Program., Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ. and Geological Survey, San Diego, CA. Water Resources Div. Sponsored by Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Document Type	Technical Report
NTIS Issue Number	200323