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Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures.

ADA047747

Publication Date	1977
Personal Author	Kahneman, D.; Tversky, A.
Page Count	42
Abstract	This paper presents an approach to elicitation and correction of intuitive forecasts, which attempts to retain the valid component of intuitive judgments while correcting some biases to which they are prone. This approach is applied to two tasks that experts are often required to perform in the context of forecasting and in the service of decision making: the prediction of values and the assessment of confidence intervals. The analysis of these judgments reveals two major biases: non-regressiveness of predictions and overconfidence. Both biases are traced to people's tendency to give insufficient weight to certain types of information, e.g., the base-rate frequency of outcomes and their predictability. The corrective procedures described in this paper are designed to elicit from experts relevant information which they would normally neglect, and to help them integrate this information with their intuitive impressions in a manner that respects basic principles of statistical prediction. (Author)
Keywords	Decision making Judgment(Psychology) Reasoning Deficiencies Error analysis Corrections Mathematical prediction Forecasting Statistical analysis Bias Confidence level Estimates
Source Agency	Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category	92B - Psychology
Corporate Authors	Decisions and Designs Inc Mclean VA
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Perceptronics, Inc., Eugene, OR. Decision Research Rept. no. PTR-1042-77-6.
Document Type	Technical Report
Title Note	Technical rept.
NTIS Issue Number	197805
Contract Number	N00014-76-C-0074

Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures.

Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures.
ADA047747

Publication Date	1977
Personal Author	Kahneman, D.; Tversky, A.
Page Count	42
Abstract	This paper presents an approach to elicitation and correction of intuitive forecasts, which attempts to retain the valid component of intuitive judgments while correcting some biases to which they are prone. This approach is applied to two tasks that experts are often required to perform in the context of forecasting and in the service of decision making: the prediction of values and the assessment of confidence intervals. The analysis of these judgments reveals two major biases: non-regressiveness of predictions and overconfidence. Both biases are traced to people's tendency to give insufficient weight to certain types of information, e.g., the base-rate frequency of outcomes and their predictability. The corrective procedures described in this paper are designed to elicit from experts relevant information which they would normally neglect, and to help them integrate this information with their intuitive impressions in a manner that respects basic principles of statistical prediction. (Author)
Keywords	Decision making Judgment(Psychology) Reasoning Deficiencies Error analysis Corrections Mathematical prediction Forecasting Statistical analysis Bias Confidence level Estimates
Source Agency	Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category	92B - Psychology
Corporate Authors	Decisions and Designs Inc Mclean VA
Supplemental Notes	Prepared in cooperation with Perceptronics, Inc., Eugene, OR. Decision Research Rept. no. PTR-1042-77-6.
Document Type	Technical Report
Title Note	Technical rept.
NTIS Issue Number	197805
Contract Number	N00014-76-C-0074