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An Objective Evaluator of Techniques for Predicting Severe Weather Events.

ADA015773

Publication Date	1975
Personal Author	Donaldson, R. J.; Dyer, R. M.; Kraus, M. J.
Page Count	7
Abstract	Two types of error arise in the prediction of severe weather. The method used may fail to predict the occurrence of a severe weather event, or it may result in a false alarm. Any evaluation of techniques for forecasting severe weather should consider both probability of detection and probability of false alarm. A simple evaluator was used, giving equal weight to probability of detection and false alarms. The Critical Success Index (CSI) is simple the ratio of successful predictions of a critical event to the sum of these successful predictions and the errors of both types. This index may be modified at will to penalize false alarms less than failures to predict severe weather events, or vice versa. Although the CSI can serve as an evaluator of any technique for prediction of critical events, it was applied to various radar methods for identification of severe storms. The results available to date demonstrate a clear superiority of Doppler radar for prediction of tornadoes and damaging windstorms, while reflectivity measured by non-attenuating radar is the most reliable radar technique for identification of hail.
Keywords	Storms Weather forecasting Probability Mathematical prediction False alarms Thunderstorms Tornadoes Meteorological radar Hail Reprints
Source Agency	Air Force Non Paid Reprints
NTIS Subject Category	55C - Meteorological Data Collection, Analysis, & Weather Forecasting
Corporate Authors	Air Force Cambridge Research Labs Hanscom AFB Mass
Document Type	Journal Article
NTIS Issue Number	197525

An Objective Evaluator of Techniques for Predicting Severe Weather Events.

An Objective Evaluator of Techniques for Predicting Severe Weather Events.
ADA015773

Publication Date	1975
Personal Author	Donaldson, R. J.; Dyer, R. M.; Kraus, M. J.
Page Count	7
Abstract	Two types of error arise in the prediction of severe weather. The method used may fail to predict the occurrence of a severe weather event, or it may result in a false alarm. Any evaluation of techniques for forecasting severe weather should consider both probability of detection and probability of false alarm. A simple evaluator was used, giving equal weight to probability of detection and false alarms. The Critical Success Index (CSI) is simple the ratio of successful predictions of a critical event to the sum of these successful predictions and the errors of both types. This index may be modified at will to penalize false alarms less than failures to predict severe weather events, or vice versa. Although the CSI can serve as an evaluator of any technique for prediction of critical events, it was applied to various radar methods for identification of severe storms. The results available to date demonstrate a clear superiority of Doppler radar for prediction of tornadoes and damaging windstorms, while reflectivity measured by non-attenuating radar is the most reliable radar technique for identification of hail.
Keywords	Storms Weather forecasting Probability Mathematical prediction False alarms Thunderstorms Tornadoes Meteorological radar Hail Reprints
Source Agency	Air Force Non Paid Reprints
NTIS Subject Category	55C - Meteorological Data Collection, Analysis, & Weather Forecasting
Corporate Authors	Air Force Cambridge Research Labs Hanscom AFB Mass
Document Type	Journal Article
NTIS Issue Number	197525